SANJAY THAPA
Riding the Exit Polls’ exalted predictions of the NDA’s cleansweep for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the stock markets crossed all time high today thus bringing about a windfall Rs 5 lakh crore gains to investors. The BSE rallied to touch a record high to 39352.67 by jumping over 1400 points while Nifty rallied 421.10 points to touch 11828.30 — highest gains since 2009. While most of the Exit Polls have predicted a high over 300 plus seats for NDA it was only three Republic C Voter, News X Neta and ABP -Nilesen showed lower than 288 seats. Others like Times Now VMR, News 24 Chanakya, India TV CNX, Aaj Tak AXIS, News18 IPSOS pegged over 306 to 365 seats to NDA.
Even as several rumours are doing the rounds whether the satta market players or punters have put their monies on creating the hype around the Exit Polls the other perspective is also said to be true – Exit Polls have created hype to influence the stock markets. Both ways there was bull run in the markets ahead of the May 23 poll results. Markets were seen celebrating Modi’s second term and that too with a thumping majority and little trace of Mahagathbandhan. Amongst the stocks that hit a new record 52 week high inlcuded Bajaj Finserve, HDFC Bank, Sree Cements, Bajaj Finance, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Titan and Axis Bank. Nifty Bank rose by a record 1309 to close at 30,759 with strong upsurge in scrips like Bank of Baroda, Indus Ind Bank, SBI and Yes Bank.
The Exit Polls also suggested BJP sustaining its position in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi, Haryana and in the North East and gaining foothold in West Bengal as well as .Orissa.
In the south, the exit polls suggested BJP gaining in Karnataka.Satta market players or bookies have betted on Modi wave to win 245-251 seats in the current Lok Sabha polls elections. Hapur based satta operators have betted 41 seats for BJP in UP down from 71 seats that it got in 2014. Mandi Patia satta bazaar in UP bets on 45 seats for BJP in UP alone.
However, betting on Exit Polls is a fallacy as seen in the 2014 results wherein the agencies did not predict a over 300 win for NDA. In 2009 too the exit polls had d the ouster of UPA . The prediction may come true or not, but it is a fact that the BJP will remain as the single largest party albiet with a lower number of seats than in 2014. It such an event too it Modi government is certain to come back for the second term.
