By Kushal Jeena
The switching over of side move by the chief minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar seems to have worked as a double edge weapon boosting the morale of a fragmented opposition on the one hand and throwing a serious political challenge to the BJP ahead of 2024 bound parliamentary polls by united opposition that ruling dispensation claims as fragile currently.
An elusive element of unity among the opposition parties was evident in the immediate aftermath of Kumar taking oath as Bihar chief minister for eighth term as NCP chief and a veteran Indian politician Sharad Pawar lamented BJP accusing the world’s largest party of trying to finish off its regional allies. Kumar, a shrewd politician who had mastered the art of safeguarding his seat in any circumstances, dumped the BJP much before it could affect a Maharashtra like scenario in Bihar.
The BJP was banking upon RCP Singh considering him as a potential Shinde in Bihar who could split Kumar’s JD (U) vertically thereby equating Kumar with Thackrey. Kumar who has long stint in Bihar and national politics sensed ulterior motives of BJP particularly the home minister Amit Shah who is termed as a mastermind behind conspiracies to dislodge opposition government in the states and firstly rallied all his legislators behind him and completely sidelined Singh, a BJP henchman and ultimately showing him exit door from the party.
The sequence of events that had unfolded in the Patna early this week has the potential of impacting the politics of Bihar as well as at the national level because in Kumar the opposition sees as a suitable match to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his brand of politics since the Bihar veteran has forced BJP to taste its own medicine. In some political quarters Kumar is already being levelled as a perfect match to Modi and his associates.
Whereas as Kumar’s masterstroke has left the BJP stranded, it would create a negative impression among upper caste, which has been already siding with the BJP, however, this experiment that Kumar has repeated would strength the influence of Kumar and Tejeswavi Yadav’s among other backward and lower casts.
The Bihar development that would not only impact the political equations of the state but also equally, this change will be felt in the next Lok Sabha elections. The structural equation in the state — arising from the balance of the social and caste arithmetic — will get loaded against the BJP-NDA giving a clear edge to opposition in a key Hindi speaking state like Bihar. The state of Bihar sends 40 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha, the house of elected representatives of the Indian Parliament.
In the previous general election the BJP-JD (U) combine had swept the state winning all seats but one. The BJP’s primary segments of influence are the upper castes, and that could make things much harder for it. In Bihar, in recent times, elections are hard to win outright for any single party. That compulsion has given rise to frequent coalitions which are put in jeopardy from time to time on account of more proximate factors as well as more mundane issues like personality differences and difficulties in faction-management.
As the coming together of Kumar and Yadav is all set to consolidate the OBCs and this situation is clear to see in Bihar alongside the coming together of the scattered elements of the former Lohia socialists — JD(U) and RJD — who are teaming up with the Congress and the entire Left spectrum — CPI(ML), CPI, CPI(M). Such a line-up on a statewide scale is new.
That this is happening in a major Hindi- speaking state is something to watch. In case this new political positioning spreads to neighbouring states, it would certainly throw a big and serious challenge to the BJP that has most of its strongholds in cow belts. The opposition parties still hold strength in southern, western and northeastern parts of the country. It is also to be seen whether Bihar development accords credence to speculations of Kumar is being pitted as prospective opposition candidate to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi because without taking Congress on board there can’t be a united prime ministerial candidate of opposition conglomeration. Notwithstanding, passing through its weakest phase, the Congress is still the only party with a pan-India presence.
